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Nearshore & Economy

The scissor effect, Portuguese nearshore at a turning point

Lisbon's cost of living is climbing. Senior salaries follow. Nearshore rates do not. What Teamlyzer data shows that most RFPs still ignore.

−38%
Real employer cost Lisbon vs Paris
INE · Teamlyzer · PWC 2025
−50%
What RFPs still expect
Meritis estimate, internal RFPs
×3,1
Lisbon housing price rise since 2015
INE Q1 2025

01. The real cost: gross salary doesn't tell the story

Comparing gross salaries across countries is comparing apples to oranges. What a nearshore buyer actually pays is the total employer cost: gross salary plus social charges. France sits at 42 to 45% employer charges on gross salary, Portugal at 26.5%, Poland at 20.5%, and Romania at near zero (2.25%).

Total employer cost - Senior SWE 2025
Glassdoor · Teamlyzer · PWC Tax Summaries · Boundless
Median gross salaries 2025. Total cost = gross + employer charges. The red line marks the −50% Paris level still cited in many 2025 RFPs.

What I see on the ground: senior candidates arrive with their Teamlyzer benchmarks. They know exactly where they stand. And when you show them the total cost differential rather than gross salary, the conversation shifts. Portugal isn't half price anymore, but the full picture is still compelling.

The right number isn't −50%. It's −38% in total employer cost. Documented. And sufficient.

02. Housing: a European story, not just a Portuguese one

INE data documents Lisbon's trajectory: from €1,400/m² in 2015 to €4,492/m² in Q1 2025. What's less often mentioned: Warsaw posted +21.7% in 2024 per Deloitte and now surpasses Rome. Lisbon's rise is real, but it is not an isolated case.

Median housing prices 2015–2025 (€/m²)
INE · Notaires-INSEE · Deloitte Property Index · Bank Al-Maghrib
Paris: Notaires-INSEE data (existing apartments). Lisbon: INE Estatísticas de Preços da Habitação. Warsaw: NBP/Deloitte. Casablanca: Bank Al-Maghrib IPAI, converted MAD→EUR.

03. The scissor effect: three speeds, one market

Housing rises fast. Salaries follow, roughly 5 to 7% annually since 2019 per Ravio and Teamlyzer. Nearshore rates move much more slowly, held back by multi-year frameworks, historical benchmarks, and buyer inertia. That gap is the scissor effect.

The scissor effect - index base 100 in 2015
INE · Teamlyzer · Ravio 2025 · estimation Meritis
Nearshore rates are a Meritis qualitative estimate based on internal RFP data 2019–2025. Trend indicator only, not a precise datapoint.

What it creates in practice: providers silently compressing margins to hold rates that no longer reflect the market, and clients wondering why proposed profiles are less senior than before, without connecting the dots.

04. So what still makes Portugal worth it?

The total employer cost differential remains real and documented: roughly −38% vs Paris all-in. That's the right number for RFPs. Beyond cost, Portugal holds on criteria valued every day: European timezone, cultural proximity with French teams, financial expertise from twenty years of banking projects, and a density of seniors in finance and data verticals you won't find in Casablanca or Bucharest.

The question I put to clients and peers alike: have your nearshore selection criteria evolved at the same pace as the market? If the only lens is raw cost differential, you're probably missing what's genuinely interesting about Portugal today.

Sources
INE Portugal, Estatísticas de Preços da Habitação Q1 2025 · Teamlyzer, base salariale IT Portugal 2025 · Glassdoor, SWE Lisbonne et Paris 2025 · PWC Tax Summaries 2025 (France, Portugal, Pologne, Roumanie) · Notaires-INSEE, prix appartements Paris 2015–2025 · Deloitte Property Index 2024 · Bank Al-Maghrib IPAI, Casablanca 2015–2025 · NBP/Deloitte, Varsovie · Ravio Compensation Trends 2025 · Estimation Meritis sur données RFP internes 2019–2025
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