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Economics · AI · Philosophy

After money

Elon Musk predicts that money will barely matter by 2036. His intuition about the power of machines may be right. But it collapses three very different problems into one: producing, distributing and deciding.

The argument is seductive: nearly free intelligence, robots capable of producing everything, collapsing prices, then money fading into the background.

But the final step is not technological. It is political.

In his interview with The Economist, Elon Musk is not merely talking about artificial intelligence. He offers a complete economic theory: machines will do every job, supply will become nearly unlimited, work will become optional and money will eventually lose its importance.

The idea deserves better than ridicule. History even partly supports it: whenever we learned to reproduce an object at scale, the portion of a life required to buy it fell. But Musk moves too quickly from “a machine can produce it” to “everyone can obtain what they want”. Between those two claims sit ownership, energy, collective rules and human beings themselves.

Before imagining the disappearance of money, let us ask a more concrete question: how long do we still have to work to obtain what we consume?

01 · The price of our time
What can be copied gets cheaper. What remains scarce resists.

This article uses a deliberately French benchmark: the SMIC, France’s statutory minimum wage. It does not represent every household or the average standard of living. It tracks a narrower question: how long must someone at the bottom of the wage scale work to access the same goods? Directly comparing francs in 1950 with euros in 2025 would tell us far less.

The measure is imperfect. It uses the gross minimum wage, not the income actually available after contributions and tax. France’s 1950 SMIG and today’s SMIC are not a politically neutral series either: their increases reflect minimum wage policy as much as productivity. With those limits kept visible, the orders of magnitude are still revealing.

Three different ways to measure affordability
France · each series begins at its first honestly comparable date · hover over or touch the lines to show values
1 · Quantities purchasable with minimum wage time

One 250 g baguette

Minutes of gross minimum wage observed price

About 50 minutes in 1950 → 5.1 minutes in 2025

100 litres of petrol

Hours of gross minimum wage tax included

60 hours in 1960 → 14.4 hours in 2025

1,000 kWh of electricity

Hours of gross minimum wage taxes + subscription

116.8 hours in 1960 → 14.7 in 2010 → 21.4 in 2025
2 · Products adjusted for changes in quality

One television

Constant-quality price, 1960 = 100 quality adjusted

The index falls from 100 to 4 while the product becomes vastly better

A comparable new car

Constant-quality effort index, 2024 = 100 Insee index

164 in 1990 → 100 in 2024. A face-price comparison from 1950 would mislead
3 · A scarce asset relative to income

Existing homes in France

National price-to-household-income index, 1965 to 2001 trend = 100 national proxy

A stable ratio for decades, followed by a sharp break after 2000
These three groups are not directly comparable. For observed prices, the calculation is the nominal tax-inclusive price divided by the gross hourly minimum wage at the same date. Cars and televisions use constant-quality indices. Housing is a national price-to-household-income index, not “the same flat” tracked since 1965. The long electricity proxy spreads subscriptions and taxes over average residential consumption. Petrol moves from leaded fuel to SP95 and then SP95-E10. Sources: Insee, IGEDD, DGEC and SDES.

The progress is striking. A baguette represented about fifty minutes of the Paris minimum wage in 1950, compared with just over five today. One hundred litres of petrol required about sixty minimum-wage hours in 1960, compared with fourteen to fifteen in 2025. Even electricity, despite becoming more expensive since 2010, remains far more accessible than at the start of the series.

Housing tells a different story. Its price relative to income remained close to its historical trend for several decades before breaking away after 2000. This helps explain why so many people can feel poorer amid undeniable progress: we occasionally replace a screen that has become cheap, but we pay for housing, energy and services every month.

Progress has mostly reduced the price of what factories can copy. It has done far less to reduce the price of what depends on a place, a finite resource or an hour of human time.

This is where AI’s real promise begins: after compressing the time required to manufacture objects, it is starting to compress the time required to produce an intellectual service.

02 · The white-collar revolution
AI is not yet replacing the worker. It is changing what one hour can produce.

Automation first hit manual workers in controlled environments: factories, warehouses and logistics chains. Office workers had already lived through spreadsheets, word processors and the internet. But those tools mostly helped them produce the deliverable. Generative AI can now produce a first version of the deliverable itself.

This is why the wave is reaching lawyers, consultants, translators, developers, designers and support agents so quickly. Their raw material is already digital: text, images, documents, data and software. Part of an hour spent on research, writing or coding can sometimes be compressed into a few minutes.

This is not yet the disappearance of the professional. It is the gradual disappearance of part of the time they used to sell. Judgement, verification, responsibility and relationships remain work. But the content of an hour is beginning to change.

An hour of work no longer produces quite the same thing
Productivity observed after an AI assistant was deployed to 5,172 support agents
Without an AI assistant · base 100100

The volume of problems resolved in a given time before deployment.

With an AI assistant · observed average115

In the same time, agents resolve about 15% more problems.

Where can the fifteen productivity points go?
The customerA lower price

Or a faster, better service.

The workerTime or income

Less effort, fewer hours or better pay.

The company and shareholdersMore margin

More output with the same headcount.

Headcount and hiringFewer jobs

If the same volume can be produced by fewer people.

Brynjolfsson, Li and Raymond observe a 15% average increase in problems resolved per hour. Gains are larger among less experienced agents. The study measures productivity in one US company. It does not tell us who captured the gain, or whether workers actually worked less, earned more or lost their jobs.

In plain terms, the time that previously allowed one hundred requests to be handled now allows about one hundred and fifteen. This is an observed productivity increase, not a forecast. Yet on its own, it tells us nothing about how the gain will be distributed.

The worker might finish the same amount of work sooner, reduce their effort, focus on more interesting tasks or negotiate better pay. The customer might pay less. The company might produce more, increase its margin or hire fewer people. Shareholders might capture most of it. The real political question is therefore not only what AI can produce, but who receives the time it frees.

And fifteen productivity points do not mean a fifteen-point fall in price. A company that controls the models, the data or market access can turn technical abundance into rent. The cost of production can collapse without the price paid by the customer falling at the same pace.

Automation moves from controlled environments into the real world
The novelty of generative AI depends less on the profession than on the already digital nature of its work
Already · controlled settingsAutomate the movement

Factories, warehouses and logistics organise space around specialised machines.

Now · screensGenerate the deliverable

Text, translation, research, images and code already exist in a form AI can process.

Next · unpredictable settingsAdapt to reality

Cleaning, construction, cooking and care still require robots that can understand a changing environment.

This diagram suggests a likely order, not a guaranteed timeline. A generated answer is not a completed assignment: verification, judgement, responsibility and human relationships remain work.

I think robots will eventually take on cleaning, cooking and monitoring just as AI is taking on office work today. But the order matters. A robot can learn a repetitive movement in a factory more easily than it can navigate a cluttered kitchen with a child and a pet nearby. Screens will come before homes, controlled environments before everyday life.

Craftsmanship will not disappear as a result. IKEA reduced the functional price of furniture without eliminating the cabinetmaker. When function becomes abundant, provenance, customisation and the fact that a particular human made the object become more valuable. Automation destroys some forms of scarcity and creates others.

This is where I part company with Musk. A technical capacity does not automatically become a social reality. Between the two stand law, trust, ownership and our possible refusal to become obsolete.

03 · The political choice
A machine can be better, without being considered legitimate.

Musk understands better than almost anyone how quickly a technology can progress. But he sometimes treats society as a second machine, one that will inevitably adopt the most effective solution.

Yet we do not only expect the best statistical diagnosis from a doctor. We want an explanation, an accountable person and someone to speak to. In justice, a decision can be consistent and still feel illegitimate if nobody can challenge it. In war, an error is not an imperfect output. It is a death. In these domains, we may choose to keep the final word even if the machine becomes better.

Believing in progress does not mean delegating everything to it
Two separate surveys · different questions · a contrast, not an equivalence
EU27 · Eurobarometer 557

AI’s expected effect on our lives in twenty years

Positive, all ages
55%
Positive, ages 15 to 24
67%
Negative, all ages
35%
Negative, age 55 and over
41%

26,500 EU residents aged 15 and over, September and October 2024.

United States · Pew · n = 11,004

A quality recognised, but a decision refused

AI would do better at treating all applicants equally
47%
Oppose AI making the final hiring decision
71%
Favour AI making that final decision
7%

US adults surveyed from 12 to 18 December 2022. The two results come from separate questions in the same survey.

Eurobarometer measures the expected future effect of AI. In a hiring context, Pew measures a perception of equal treatment and an explicit refusal to delegate. It does not ask whether AI would be better at recruitment overall. Age gaps observed at one point in time do not prove a generational effect.

These figures do not prove that the public will always prefer a human to a more effective AI. They show something more precise. A majority of Europeans can expect AI to have a positive effect, while part of the US public can recognise a procedural advantage without accepting that it decide alone. We can recognise a quality in the machine and still refuse to surrender the decision.

This resistance will not only be legal. It will be intimate. A technology that frees us from a chore is desirable. An intelligence that writes, decides or creates better than we do raises a more brutal question: does it make us freer, or merely less necessary?

I still believe automation will ultimately benefit humanity as a whole. But I believe neither in the 2036 timetable nor in a transition without conflict. Before work becomes optional, millions of people could lose some of their bargaining power while a handful of companies own the machines. Abundance in production is not yet abundance in access.

A universal basic income can serve as a bridge, but it does not build an apartment, a power station or an additional doctor. Our world remains finite. Producing more is not enough when the problem is the location of a home, the capacity of a grid, a specialist’s time or ownership of the machines.

Even if we overcame all those obstacles, abundance would not end competition. Not everyone can own the best-located home, receive all the attention, command the most trust or wield the most power. Our needs can be met, but our desire for distinction continually recreates scarcity.

Then comes meaning. I do not think we will stop acting because we no longer need a salary. We will continue in order to learn, care for others, be recognised and move society forward. We will simply have to stop confusing employment with usefulness. The real danger of an abundant world would not be that humans have nothing left to do. It would be that, after handing all their functions to machines, they no longer know why they matter.

Conclusion

Produce, distribute, decide

Musk may be right about the potential fall in production costs. But he still confuses producing, distributing and deciding. AI can make goods and some services abundant. It cannot multiply land, attention, legitimacy or power without limit. Money may matter less for what can be copied, and more for access to what cannot.

Sources and method

Purchasing effort is the nominal tax-inclusive price, or the constant-quality price index, divided by the gross hourly minimum wage at the same date. It measures gross wage time, not purchasing power after contributions and tax. Series that cannot honestly be extended to the 1950s are not extended. The tables below provide every milestone used in the article and make definition breaks visible.

Full data · goods and energy
SeriesUnit and methodMilestonesMinimum wage time or effort indexMain limitation
Petrol100 litres, national tax-inclusive pump price1960 · 1970 · 1980 · 1990 · 2000 · 2010 · 2020 · 2024 · 202560.0 h · 32.7 h · 30.5 h · 17.4 h · 17.4 h · 15.2 h · 13.2 h · 15.2 h · 14.4 hRegular and premium leaded petrol, then SP95 and SP95-E10. 2025 is not consolidated.
Electricity1,000 kWh, average residential spending per kWh, with taxes and subscription allocated1960 · 1970 · 1980 · 1990 · 2000 · 2010 · 2016 · 2025116.8 h · 57.1 h · 35.3 h · 25.5 h · 18.5 h · 14.7 h · 18.0 h · 21.4 hThis is neither the marginal kWh price nor a bill for a standard contract.
New carInsee constant-quality car CPI, 2024 effort = 1001990 · 2000 · 2010 · 2020 · 2024164.0 · 126.5 · 99.7 · 100.2 · 100.0No absolute face-price series can honestly compare an identical car since 1950.
Full data · human services
ServiceMeasureMilestonesMinimum wage time or effort indexMain limitation
Sector 1 GPFace price, assuming no reimbursement2001 · 2005 · 2011 · 2017 · 2023 · 2025 · 2026160.8 min · 153.5 · 153.3 · 153.7 · 138.0 · 151.5 · 149.8Stable administered fee, but non-standardised clinical content.
Sector 1 GPAmount after public health insurance, before complementary insurance202654.9 min, or €11 of a €30 face priceCare pathway, flat contribution and complementary insurance change the final amount.
CESU cleaningHourly net wage received by the worker2022 · 202365.4 min · 64.5 minThis is not the employer’s cost.
Platform cleaningObserved price before and after the 50% tax credit2025126.3 min · 63.1 minFour platforms, not a national average. Individual aid and caps vary.
Restaurants and cafésRelative effort index, 2025 = 1001998 · 2000 · 2005 · 2010 · 2015 · 2020 · 2025107.2 · 106.4 · 99.0 · 95.2 · 97.7 · 99.6 · 100No national standard meal, so no absolute number of minutes.
Hairdressing and beauty careRelative effort index, 2025 = 1001998 · 2000 · 2005 · 2010 · 2015 · 2020 · 2025121.6 · 120.4 · 108.8 · 105.0 · 103.6 · 105.3 · 100No standard haircut; two Insee bases joined in 2015.

AI productivity. Brynjolfsson, Li and Raymond study the gradual deployment of a conversational assistant to 5,172 support agents at a US company. Access to the tool increases the number of problems resolved per hour by 15% on average and by around 30% among less experienced or lower-performing agents. The authors observe little gain among top agents, with a slight decline in quality for some. This is a short- to medium-term effect in one company, not an estimate of employment or wages across the economy.

Full data · opinion on AI

Eurobarometer 557. Question: “The following is a list of areas where new technologies are currently being developed. For each of these, do you think it will have a positive effect, a negative effect or no effect on our way of life in the next 20 years?”, item “Artificial intelligence”. EU27, September and October 2024, n = 26,500, residents aged 15 and over.

AgePositive effectNegative effect
All55%35%
15 to 2467%Not published in the selected extract
55 and overNot published in the selected extract41%

Eurobarometer 554. EU27, 25 April to 22 May 2024, n = 26,415, residents aged 15 and over. Exact questions: “In your view, what impact do the most recent digital technologies, including artificial intelligence, currently have on society?”; “The use of robots and artificial intelligence will destroy more jobs than they create”; “Robots and artificial intelligence are technologies that require careful management”; “Robots and artificial intelligence should be used more widely outside the workplace”.

MeasureResponseShare
Current impact on societyPositive56%
Current impact on societyNegative33%
More jobs destroyed than createdTotal agree66%
Careful management requiredTotal agree84%
Wider use outside workTotal agree48%

Pew Research Center. US adults, 12 to 18 August 2024, n = 5,410, probability-based American Trends Panel. Question: “Overall, would you say the increased use of artificial intelligence (AI) in daily life makes you feel...”

AgeMore excitedMore concernedEqually excited and concerned
All11%51%38%
18 to 2919%39%42%
30 to 4914%47%38%
50 to 647%56%36%
65 and over4%59%36%

Pew question: “Thinking about the U.S. over the next 20 years, what impact do you think artificial intelligence (AI) will have on the United States?”

AgePositiveEqually positive and negativeNegativeUnsure
All17%33%35%16%
18 to 2921%39%31%9%
30 to 4916%34%35%14%
50 to 6416%30%40%14%
65 and over14%29%31%25%

Pew question: “Thinking about how AI may affect you personally, do you think it will benefit you, harm you, or are you not sure?”

AgeHarmBenefitUnsure
All43%24%33%
18 to 2940%33%26%
30 to 4944%26%29%
50 to 6446%21%33%
65 and over39%16%45%

Pew question, form 1, n = 2,701: “Thinking about the U.S. over the next 20 years, what impact do you think artificial intelligence (AI) will have on...”

DomainPositiveNegative
Medical care44%19%
School education24%34%
Criminal justice18%32%

Other Pew questions, n = 5,410: 64% answer “fewer jobs” to “Over the next 20 years, do you think artificial intelligence (AI) will lead to more jobs, fewer jobs, or not make much of a difference in the U.S.?”; 56% are “extremely/very concerned” about “people losing their jobs because of artificial intelligence”; 63% say AI will never reach the point where they would trust it to make important decisions for them, versus 13% who think it will.

Pew, hiring delegation. US adults, 12 to 18 December 2022, n = 11,004, probability-based American Trends Panel. Exact question: “Would you favor or oppose employers’ use of artificial intelligence (AI) for making a final hiring decision?” Responses: 7% favour, 71% oppose and 22% are unsure. Another question in the same survey shows that 47% think AI would do better than humans at treating all applicants equally, 15% worse, 14% equally well and 23% are unsure.