01
Why a film
Since Covid, I've been reading a lot about China, especially its digital world. I had hunches, but I'd never really dug into the numbers. So before leaving, I asked myself four questions: their history, their talent, the digital wall between them and us, and my own trade, IT services.
The film follows the same method as every Miradouro piece: an observation, sourced data, its limits, then questions. Every figure links to its source below.
02
What the numbers don't say
- Chinese statistics are official: scopes set by the state, methods rarely published. Some series have been heavily revised (robot density, for instance).
- Several figures come from research firms or the press (payment shares, OpenRouter traffic, iPhones in India): they are estimates, and two OpenRouter readings disagree on the starting point.
- Wages are averages for the public sector and large organisations, converted at October 2026 exchange rates: the 2010 figure of $9,600 depends on the rate used (between $9,500 and $9,700). The comparison with France and Portugal is a Miradouro calculation, with different years.
- Youth unemployment isn't comparable across countries: China excludes students, Eurostat includes them.
- AI model prices are compared per token; per completed task, the gap often shrinks.
- And I haven't been to China yet. This film is a starting point, not a verdict.
Been there?
- What shouldn't I miss in Shanghai, Guizhou, Zhangjiajie or Beijing?
- Which figure in this film looks wrong or misleading to you? Tell me and I'll fix it.
- And for Europe, for Portugal: what are we building, for fifteen years from now?
Postcards to follow, during and after the trip.
Sources
Their history
- China's share of world output in 1820 (about a third) and around 1950 (about 5%), purchasing-power estimates. Maddison, Contours of the World Economy, 2007 (table) · L. J. Lau, CUHK, 2026
- About a fifth of the world economy today, in purchasing power (19.9% in 2026, projection). IMF, World Economic Outlook
Talent & tech
- PISA 2022: France and Portugal each lost around twenty points in maths compared with 2018. OECD, France note · OECD, Portugal note
- PISA 2018: Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang (not all of China) first in all three subjects; China did not take part in 2022. OECD, PISA 2018 Results, volume I
- 57% of elite AI researchers studied in China; more of them now work in China than in the US (NeurIPS 2025 cohort). Carnegie Endowment, 23/09/2026 · The Next Web
- Open models five to ten times cheaper per token than the best US model. Digital in Asia, price tracker, 25/07/2026
- Over half of developer traffic on OpenRouter going to Chinese models, week of 14 September 2026. CNBC, 26/09/2026 · Trending Topics, March 2026 (another reading)
- WeChat: over 1.4 billion monthly users. Tencent, Q1 2026 results
- Payment apps: 89% of in-store purchase value in China in 2025. Global Payments Report 2026 via Caixin, 20/05/2026
- Facial-recognition payment (“Smile to Pay”) in shops since 2017. CNBC, 04/09/2017
- Industrial robots: almost 3 installations in 5 worldwide went to China (2025). IFR, 24/09/2026
- Rare earths: almost 7 tonnes in 10 mined (69% in 2025) and over 9 in 10 refined in China. USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 · IEA, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (via Skillings)
- Chip foundry: TSMC 72.5%, SMIC 5.4% of global revenue (Q2 2026). TrendForce, 09/09/2026
The wall
- Google left mainland China in 2010; WhatsApp blocked there since September 2017. The Hacker News, 26/09/2017
- Local storage and a security review before large data transfers abroad. Personal Information Protection Law, arts 38 to 40
- Goal of removing Western software from government and state-owned firms by 2027. Wall Street Journal via Tom's Hardware, 08/03/2024
- Cloud in mainland China: Alibaba 36%, Huawei 16%, Tencent 9% (Q3 2025); Alibaba plans over 380 billion yuan (about 53 billion dollars) for AI and cloud over three years. Omdia, February 2026 · Caixin, 25/02/2025
- Huawei added to the US Commerce Department entity list (2019); in Europe, several countries exclude high-risk vendors from 5G, including Portugal (2023). Akin Gump, May 2019 · The Portugal News, 16/06/2023
- BYD: European registrations up 3.7 times in 2025 (187,657 vs 50,912). ACEA via CnEVPost, 27/01/2026
- TikTok: 189 million monthly users in the EU. DSA disclosure via Social Media Today
- Xiaomi: 16% of smartphones sold in Europe (Q1 2025). Canalys via GSMArena
My trade
- iSoftStone: 35 billion yuan revenue; Accenture: 74 billion dollars; market value gap of about 27 times. Eastmoney, 26/04/2026 · Accenture, 8-K · companiesmarketcap, 16/10/2026
- Average wage in software and IT services: 64,436 yuan in 2010, 248,752 in 2025 (urban non-private units). National Bureau of Statistics, yearbook 2011 · National Bureau of Statistics, 18/05/2026
- Cost-of-living adjusted comparison with France and Portugal (Miradouro calculation). World Bank, PPP conversion factors · Eurostat, Structure of Earnings Survey 2022
The limits
- Births: 7.92 million in 2025 vs 17.86 million in 2016. Caixin, 19/01/2026 · National Bureau of Statistics, 2017
- Unemployment among urban 16 to 24 year-olds, excluding students: 18.9% (August 2026). National Bureau of Statistics via Trading Economics
- Augmented public debt: 126.6% of GDP in 2025, IMF definition. IMF, Article IV, 18/02/2026
- AI-chip memory dominated by Korea; one iPhone in four assembled in India (2025). Counterpoint · Bloomberg via TechCrunch
The trip
- Guizhou, a data-centre hub: computing power almost tripled in a year (over 150 exaflops at end-2025). Xinhua via China Daily, 14/01/2026